Chapter 1 Industry Overview
Computer, is a modern electronic computer for high-speed calculations, can be numerical calculations, but also logical calculations, but also has a storage memory function. It is a modern intelligent electronic device that can run in accordance with the program and automatically and at high-speed process large amounts of data.
Computers are composed of hardware systems and software systems. Computers without any software installed are called bare metal. It can be divided into five categories: supercomputers, industrial control computers, network computers, personal computers, embedded computers, and more advanced computers such as biological computers, photonic computers, and quantum computers. Computer hardware refers to a system that is composed of many different functional modular components and completes input, processing, storage, and output operations with the cooperation of software. Hardware in a narrow sense refers to computer hardware, which can be classified into five parts according to different functions: input device, output device, memory, operator, and motherboard. The broad sense of hardware is the opposite of "software", which refers to all devices that receive, store, process, and output information.
Figure Computer Industry Mapping
Figure Dynamic extrapolation
Figure Hardware classification (by applicability)
Figure Hardware classification (by sales target)
Chapter 2 Business Model and Technology Development
2.1 Industry chain value chain
Figure China Smart Hardware Industry Chain Mapping
Figure Global IT Information Industry Competitive Ecology
Figure The full-stack architecture of the computing industry's autonomous and controllable terminals
The CPU (Central Processing Unit) is the computing and control core of a computer. Its function is mainly to complete the execution of computer instructions and the processing of data. CPU, together with internal memory and input/output devices, are considered the three core components of electronic computers. The Internet of Things (IoT) is a network that connects any object to the Internet for information exchange and communication through information sensing devices such as QR code reading devices, radio frequency identification (RFID) devices, infrared sensors, global positioning systems, and so on, according to an agreed protocol, to achieve intelligent identification, positioning, tracking, monitoring, and management. The Internet of Things can realize the organic unification of sensing, transmission, and intelligent processing of things to form highly intelligent decisions.
Figure Basic model of the Internet of Things
Figure IoT Industry Chain
2.2 Technology Development
The foundation of digital transformation is computing platform innovation, such as Huawei's Kunpeng computing industry layout of "one cloud, two wings and two engines". The Kunpeng computing industry is based on the Kunpeng and Rising processor, creating an IT infrastructure with ARM architecture chip servers and machines as the bottom layer.
Figure New technologies and architectures to meet the new challenges of the digital economy
NAND technology, Micron announced the launch of 176-layer 3D NAND in November; SK Hynix also announced the launch of 176-layer 4D NAND in December; Samsung's seventh-generation V- NAND stacking layers are also expected to reach 256 layers; Changjiang Storage in the beginning of the year to handle 128-layer TLC, QLC products, and mass production at the end of the planned 2020.
2.3 Policy and Regulation
The Central Economic Work Conference listed the strengthening of national strategic science and technology forces and the enhancement of independent controllability of the industrial chain supply chain as the first two work priorities for next year. Policies around the development of science and technology are steadily advancing. The boom of autonomous controllable industry is expected to exceed market expectations.
According to the 12th Five-Year Industrial Technology Innovation Plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the computer hardware and software and hardware industry will focus on the development of: industrial design of computer products, motherboard manufacturing, thin and portable, low power consumption, touch technology, industrial control computer architecture; air traffic control technology; terrestrial digital television key technology, digital audio and video coding and decoding technology, Blu-ray HD optical disc technology, digital copyright management technology, digital content protection technology, home gateway technology, home electronics interconnection technology, unified multi-service authentication platform technology.
Chapter 3: Industry Valuation, Pricing Mechanisms and Global Leaders
3.1 Comprehensive financial analysis and valuation methods for the industry
Figure Comprehensive Financial Analysis
Figure Industry valuation and comparison
Computer and hardware valuation methods can choose from P/E valuation method, PEG valuation method, P/N ratio valuation method, price to present ratio, P/S price to sales valuation method, EV / Sales price to sales valuation method, RNAV revaluation of net assets valuation method, EV/EBITDA valuation method, DDM valuation method, DCF discounted cash flow valuation method, NAV net asset value valuation method, etc.
3.2 Development and price-driven mechanisms
Information security, industry chain supply security, the development of industrial ecology to lay the long-term core logic of the domestic infrastructure software and hardware industry, 2020-2021 is the pilot phase of industry localization, after 2022 may enter a rapid promotion and release phase, the industry market size is much higher than the party and government market, innovative and credible field of companies will usher in the harvest period of performance, the core technology is the country's heavy weapon. The market cannot be exchanged for core technology, money cannot buy core technology, must rely on their own research and development, their own development. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that the core technology is the heavy weapon of the country. Industrial chain supply security. Information industry has become the center of gravity of the global power encounter, the core technology is the heavy weapon of the country, so the development of domestic core technology is the way to go.
Figure: Mapping of China's basic hardware and software industry
Demand side: 5G deployment brings two new incremental markets for filters and optical modules. Elevated demand and short supply of silicon wafers bring new opportunities for domestic silicon wafers.
3.3 Competitive Analysis
Figure Hardware manufacturers competitive factors analysis
Figure Brand premium composition analysis
Figure Four major IT groups and their layout
Information technology application innovation industry will help the local industry information industry to occupy a place in the world. China's information creation industry development is China's information industry and even the global information industry a pattern of restructuring, the process is the rise of China's basic hardware and software, which is no longer just a question of wintel architecture security or not, but also to develop a complete industrial chain and core competitiveness of China's IT industry.
Figure World-class IT companies
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The new pattern is becoming clear: Kirin OS consolidates the leading position, and Kirin's market share is expected to be above 65%: Kirin OS is expected to gain the majority of market share in the government intranet due to Kirin Software and China Software's flush qualification and outstanding security capability.
Huawei's development plan for the five chip families of "computing, storage, transmission, management, and intelligence
Intel processors are available in eight series, which can be divided into four major types based on the application scenarios of the products. Currently, there are eight brands of Intel processors, namely Core, Pentium, Celeron, Atom, Quark, Xeon, Xeon Fusion and Anthem. "Quark", "Xeon", "Xeon Fusion" and "Anthem "etc. The Intel Xeon series can be divided into Xeon Bronze, Silver, Gold and Platinum according to performance level; the "Atom" series is mostly used in mobile devices, including cell phones and tablets; the "Quark" structure is extremely small and is mainly used in Quark" structure is extremely small, mainly used in smart home and wearable devices.
Figure Intel Processor Classification and Positioning
In terms of overall performance, the 48-core Kunpeng 920 is comparable to the Intel Xeon 8180, while the 64-core Kunpeng 920 outperforms the Xeon 8180 in testing.
Figure Kunpeng 920 vs Xeon 8180 performance comparison
Figure 2019H1 China storage market Huawei ranked first
Figure Computer system domestic replacement status at a glance
3.4 China Company Ranking
Figure Top 20 listed companies in A-share
Figure Hong Kong Listed Companies
1/ Ziguang: The company is a Chinese high-tech A-share listed company mainly engaged in information electronics industry. The company's core business basically covers the important areas of IT services: hardware to provide intelligent network equipment, storage systems, a full range of servers and other advanced equipment for future computing architecture. Combining the development trend of global information industry and the characteristics of its own advantageous business, the company focuses its strategy on the field of IT services and devotes itself to building a complete and powerful "cloud-net-end" industry chain, to the cloud computing, mobile Internet and big data processing, etc. The company is committed to building a complete and powerful "cloud-net-end" industry chain, and to deepening the application fields of information technology such as cloud computing, mobile Internet and big data processing, and becoming a full industry chain service provider integrating R&D, construction, operation and maintenance of modern information systems.
2/ Wave Information: The company is a leading cloud computing and big data service provider in China, with business covering cloud data center, cloud service big data, smart city, smart enterprise and other industry groups, providing IT products and services for many countries and regions around the world, meeting government and enterprise informatization needs in all aspects. With high-end servers, massive storage, cloud operating systems and information security technologies, the company builds leading cloud computing infrastructure platforms for customers, and fully supports the construction of smart government, enterprise cloud and vertical industry cloud based on Longchamp's government, enterprise and industry informatization software, terminal products and solutions. The company takes data as the core, based on the world's leading cloud data center platform and cloud service platform, to build a platform ecological enterprise, and work together with partners to build a data social ecology, accelerate the transformation to cloud services, big data, smart city "new three operators", committed to become a "cloud + data "We are committed to becoming a new type of Internet enterprise.
3/ Lenovo Group [0992.HK]: Lenovo is principally engaged in investment holding. With innovative products, efficient supply chain and strong strategic execution, Lenovo is committed to creating superior personal computing and mobile Internet products for users worldwide. Comprised of Lenovo and the former IBM Personal Computing Division, the Group develops, manufactures and markets high-quality, reliable, secure and easy-to-use technology products and services worldwide. Product lines include traditional Think-branded business PCs, Idea-branded consumer PCs, as well as servers, workstations and a range of mobile Internet terminals including tablets and smartphones. Lenovo has key R&D centers in Yamato, Japan, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, China and Raleigh, North Carolina, USA.
3.5 Global Key Competitors
Table Global Computer and Hardware Company Ranking
Figure Foreign Related Listed Companies
1/ Apple Inc.: Apple Inc. is a high-tech company in the United States. It designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, portable digital music players and mobile communication tools, various related software, ancillary facilities, peripherals and network products. Sales are made through a variety of channels, including online stores, retail stores, direct sales, resale, and third-party wholesale. In addition, Apple sells third-party products, compatible products such as iPods and iPhones, including application software, printers, storage devices, audio, headphones and a variety of accessories and peripherals. Apple's personal computer products include desktop and notebook computers, servers, storage products, related devices and peripherals and a variety of third-party hardware products.
2/ IBM: IBM Corporation is the world's largest information technology and business solutions company. Its main business units include Global Technology Services (GTS), Global Business Services (GBS), Systems and Technology, Software and Global Finance. Hardware: IBM is a long-time leader in the computer industry, with the most notable achievements in mainframe/small form factor and portable machines (ThinkPad). It created the Personal Computer (PC) standard, which is still being used and developed today.
3/ Dell [DELL.N]: Dell Technologies, Inc. is the new company resulting from the merger of EMC Corporation and Dell Inc. Dell is a Fortune 500 company headquartered in Londonderry, Texas, USA. The company is known for manufacturing, designing, and selling home and office computers, but it also has a presence in the high-end computer market, manufacturing and selling servers, data storage devices, networking equipment and more. The new combined company will shift its business focus to cloud services and promote integration in the server and storage sectors. On the other hand, VMware, EMC's global leader in desktop-to-data center virtualization solutions, will remain as a separate public company.
4/ Hewlett-Packard [HPQ.N]: HP is a global provider of technology solutions for individual users, small, medium and large enterprises and research institutions. Its products cover information technology infrastructure, personal computing and access devices, graphics and printing devices for global services, including desktop computers and workstations, notebooks and tablets, printers and MFPs, PDAs, projectors Hewlett-Packard is the world's leading provider of digital imaging, storage, servers, networking equipment, supplies and accessories. HP has an Enterprise Systems Group, a Professional and Support Services Group, a Graphics and Printing Devices Group, an Information Products Group and HP Labs. HP focuses on cloud computing solutions, while Hewlett-Packard focuses on printers and PC personal computers.
Chapter 4 Future Industry Outlook
1/ Luxury thin and light become the new competition point intelligent terminal devices, miniaturization, lightweight is a major industry-wide development trend, notebooks as one of the leading consumer electronics products, in recent years in the field of thin and light design, changing the traditional notebooks have performance and weight of the situation, thin and light notebooks are also configured with high-end built-in devices, prompting notebook sales from a simple business office gradually developed into including business office This has led to the gradual development of notebook sales from pure business office to include business office, design, gaming and other diversified fields.
2/ "Internet+Education" opens new markets. The "13th Five-Year Plan" for the development of national education proposes to accelerate the "broadband network school access", improve the school education information infrastructure, strengthen the construction of "wireless campus", and basically To achieve full coverage of broadband network and the popularization of network teaching environment in schools at all levels, to achieve full coverage of wireless network in urban schools with conditions, and to encourage schools with conditions to configure teaching terminals for teachers and students.
3/ e-sports to create a new high-end market with the domestic e-sports industry is recognized by the market, policy documents have landed, directly stimulating the rapid development of the domestic game industry, while the technology upgrade of the video game industry, for computer configuration requirements appear significantly higher, the continuous expansion of the e-sports industry scale is conducive to improve the high-end computer products, the market profit margin is expected to appear significantly higher.
4/ In the future, with the increase in compliance requirements and user security awareness, as well as the development of cloud computing brings the blurring of network margins and the centralized control of data resulting in greater security risks, customers pay more attention to security, data security, security management needs are accelerating.